MigrationWatchdog

Then and now

Each measure compared with itself, at the two ends of the series its publisher provides.

Every row here is one series compared with itself. Nothing on this page sets one publisher's figure against another's, or a snapshot against a flow — and nothing on it explains why any of the numbers moved.

Read the start date, not just the change
“Since records began” is a claim almost nobody's records support. Most of these series start in 2010 or later, and one starts in 2018 because the route it counts did. Where a series starts is stated in every row, because a comparison that does not exist before that date cannot be made after it either.
This page does not explain anything
Two dated points show what changed on a measure. They cannot show why. Policy decisions, the pandemic, the war in Ukraine and the state of the world all sit inside these gaps, and putting a cause beside a number is exactly the kind of claim this site does not make. A number rising is not automatically a failure, and a number falling is not automatically a success — several rows below move in opposite directions for reasons the data does not contain.
Each measure at the start and end of its own published series, with its peak
MeasureThenNowChangePeak in the series
Small-boat arrivals detectedDetections in a calendar year. The series begins in 2018 because the route did.299201841,4722025n/a45,7742022
Asylum claimsPeople claiming asylum in a calendar year.22,6442010100,6252025+344.4%104,7642024
Awaiting an initial asylum decisionA snapshot on one date, not a flow. People are lawfully present while a claim is decided.9,44130 Jun 201048,75831 Mar 2026+416.4%175,45730 Jun 2023
In receipt of Home Office asylum supportA snapshot on one date, all accommodation types.31,29431 Mar 201497,51931 Mar 2026+211.6%123,75830 Sep 2023
In contingency hotelsA snapshot. Hotels are a subset of the row above, not an addition to it.031 Mar 201420,88531 Mar 2026n/a56,01830 Sep 2023
Enforced returnsReturns the state carried out, in a calendar year. Not the same as all returns.21,42520049,9122025-53.7%21,4252004
Voluntary returnsDepartures the person made themselves, including assisted and controlled ones.3,566200429,4592025+726.1%31,7622010
Entering immigration detentionEntries in a calendar year — occurrences, so one person can appear twice.25,904201022,9962025-11.2%32,4472015
Total long-term net migration (context, not irregular)An ONS estimate covering ALL routes, overwhelmingly lawful. It is here for scale and must not be compared with, or added to, any row above it.162,000year ending Jun 2012171,000year ending Dec 2025+5.6%944,000year ending Mar 2023

What this table cannot show

  • It cannot be summed down a column. The rows count different things on different bases — detections, people, snapshots, occurrences and an estimate. Two of them are subsets of others.
  • A percentage change off a small base is not news. Where a series starts below 1,000, no percentage is shown at all and the column reads “n/a” — small-boat detections start at 299 in 2018, which would produce a five-figure percentage that dominates the table while telling you less than the two numbers beside it.
  • The peak is the peak of THIS series. Where a series starts in 2010 or 2018, an earlier and higher point may exist in a collection this site does not hold, and the peak column would not know about it.
  • The last point is often provisional. Recent figures get revised — usually upward as late records arrive — so the most recent comparison is the least settled one on the page.

Each row links its own source below. The fuller version of each series, with its caveats, is on the page it belongs to: arrivals, asylum, hotels, enforcement.

Data as of

Cite this page

Then and now: UK asylum and enforcement measures compared. Migration Watchdog, data as of 2026-08-21.
https://migrationwatchdog.com/then-and-now
Underlying figures: UK official statistics, re-published under OGL v3.0 — every figure links to its source on the page.

Sources for this page