MigrationWatchdog

Appeals: the next backlog

The Home Office’s own appeals table stopped updating at year ending March 2023. The Ministry of Justice’s tribunal statistics carry the live series: how many appeals are lodged, how many are decided, how many are allowed, and how many are waiting.

151,767
open appeals at the tribunal
at end of 2025/26 Q4 · source
87,450
of which asylum/protection
at end of 2025/26 Q4 · source
27,689
new appeals in the latest quarter
2025/26 Q4 · source
45%
asylum appeals allowed (financial year 2024/25)
financial year 2024/25 · source

For scale, the two queues side by side — and they are counted differently, so the comparison is like-for-like only on the asylum figures. The tribunal held 87,450 open asylum and protection appeals (at end of 2025/26 Q4, counted in cases by the Ministry of Justice), against the Home Office's 40,168 people awaiting an initial decision (as at 30 June 2026). The tribunal's caseload across all immigration case types is larger still, at 151,767 — but that figure covers work this page's asylum comparison does not, and the two should not be set against each other.

Cases are not people: one tribunal case can cover a family, as can one Home Office claim. The two bodies count on different bases and to different period conventions, so no ratio between them is published here.

as at 30 June 2026 · source

The tribunal's open caseload

All case typesAsylum/protection
152k02015/16 Q12025/26 Q42015/16 Q1 — All case types: 52,991 · Asylum/protection: 8,2432015/16 Q2 — All case types: 52,628 · Asylum/protection: 8,7542015/16 Q3 — All case types: 57,951 · Asylum/protection: 10,4972015/16 Q4 — All case types: 61,901 · Asylum/protection: 11,6602016/17 Q1 — All case types: 64,821 · Asylum/protection: 11,8482016/17 Q2 — All case types: 62,903 · Asylum/protection: 11,3612016/17 Q3 — All case types: 57,954 · Asylum/protection: 10,1432016/17 Q4 — All case types: 52,365 · Asylum/protection: 7,0292017/18 Q1 — All case types: 43,416 · Asylum/protection: 5,7992017/18 Q2 — All case types: 36,138 · Asylum/protection: 5,5432017/18 Q3 — All case types: 35,106 · Asylum/protection: 6,4072017/18 Q4 — All case types: 36,267 · Asylum/protection: 6,7352018/19 Q1 — All case types: 34,638 · Asylum/protection: 7,0072018/19 Q2 — All case types: 31,547 · Asylum/protection: 6,6212018/19 Q3 — All case types: 27,862 · Asylum/protection: 5,9722018/19 Q4 — All case types: 24,805 · Asylum/protection: 5,4702019/20 Q1 — All case types: 23,233 · Asylum/protection: 5,5342019/20 Q2 — All case types: 20,363 · Asylum/protection: 5,2592019/20 Q3 — All case types: 19,622 · Asylum/protection: 5,2852019/20 Q4 — All case types: 19,845 · Asylum/protection: 5,1122020/21 Q1 — All case types: 20,105 · Asylum/protection: 5,2092020/21 Q2 — All case types: 22,033 · Asylum/protection: 6,1562020/21 Q3 — All case types: 23,526 · Asylum/protection: 6,4512020/21 Q4 — All case types: 24,560 · Asylum/protection: 6,6552021/22 Q1 — All case types: 31,798 · Asylum/protection: 7,0412021/22 Q2 — All case types: 33,111 · Asylum/protection: 7,1772021/22 Q3 — All case types: 31,750 · Asylum/protection: 7,0072021/22 Q4 — All case types: 28,413 · Asylum/protection: 6,7172022/23 Q1 — All case types: 25,084 · Asylum/protection: 6,3192022/23 Q2 — All case types: 25,586 · Asylum/protection: 6,3862022/23 Q3 — All case types: 29,017 · Asylum/protection: 7,1732022/23 Q4 — All case types: 30,548 · Asylum/protection: 7,5102023/24 Q1 — All case types: 30,047 · Asylum/protection: 7,6012023/24 Q2 — All case types: 30,874 · Asylum/protection: 9,3802023/24 Q3 — All case types: 41,484 · Asylum/protection: 19,4592023/24 Q4 — All case types: 50,332 · Asylum/protection: 27,1332024/25 Q1 — All case types: 58,418 · Asylum/protection: 33,2272024/25 Q2 — All case types: 63,016 · Asylum/protection: 34,2342024/25 Q3 — All case types: 74,969 · Asylum/protection: 41,9872024/25 Q4 — All case types: 90,389 · Asylum/protection: 50,9762025/26 Q1 — All case types: 105,522 · Asylum/protection: 59,9252025/26 Q2 — All case types: 121,015 · Asylum/protection: 69,6702025/26 Q3 — All case types: 139,407 · Asylum/protection: 80,3332025/26 Q4 — All case types: 151,767 · Asylum/protection: 87,450
Open caseload at quarter end, First-tier Tribunal (IAC). Tribunal statistics quarterly, January to March 2026 (Ministry of Justice / HMCTS).

New appeals received per quarter

56k02007/08 Q12025/26 Q42007/08 Q1 — 40,3772007/08 Q2 — 54,1112007/08 Q3 — 44,4482007/08 Q4 — 45,7472008/09 Q1 — 49,3852008/09 Q2 — 56,3392008/09 Q3 — 49,4132008/09 Q4 — 50,7542009/10 Q1 — 43,7502009/10 Q2 — 45,3842009/10 Q3 — 43,3852009/10 Q4 — 40,1302010/11 Q1 — 36,5842010/11 Q2 — 39,4912010/11 Q3 — 35,3692010/11 Q4 — 34,6602011/12 Q1 — 28,3602011/12 Q2 — 35,4802011/12 Q3 — 30,6672011/12 Q4 — 27,8642012/13 Q1 — 26,5632012/13 Q2 — 25,7482012/13 Q3 — 27,7682012/13 Q4 — 23,8442013/14 Q1 — 31,5542013/14 Q2 — 27,3872013/14 Q3 — 24,6212013/14 Q4 — 21,4342014/15 Q1 — 19,7032014/15 Q2 — 21,9382014/15 Q3 — 25,7352014/15 Q4 — 24,2512015/16 Q1 — 21,7382015/16 Q2 — 19,4272015/16 Q3 — 18,3732015/16 Q4 — 17,3822016/17 Q1 — 16,0452016/17 Q2 — 14,4722016/17 Q3 — 12,3062016/17 Q4 — 11,6162017/18 Q1 — 7,8492017/18 Q2 — 9,6622017/18 Q3 — 14,9212017/18 Q4 — 12,9082018/19 Q1 — 11,8842018/19 Q2 — 11,2352018/19 Q3 — 10,3872018/19 Q4 — 10,3582019/20 Q1 — 9,9492019/20 Q2 — 10,5742019/20 Q3 — 11,1602019/20 Q4 — 10,6102020/21 Q1 — 2,6212020/21 Q2 — 5,3622020/21 Q3 — 7,8802020/21 Q4 — 10,3482021/22 Q1 — 13,2902021/22 Q2 — 10,0522021/22 Q3 — 8,4822021/22 Q4 — 7,9182022/23 Q1 — 6,2632022/23 Q2 — 9,1962022/23 Q3 — 10,8802022/23 Q4 — 11,4342023/24 Q1 — 9,3582023/24 Q2 — 10,3992023/24 Q3 — 20,1752023/24 Q4 — 18,1162024/25 Q1 — 17,5002024/25 Q2 — 13,5112024/25 Q3 — 21,7902024/25 Q4 — 26,2732025/26 Q1 — 27,5342025/26 Q2 — 30,3092025/26 Q3 — 32,1652025/26 Q4 — 27,689
Appeals received, all case types. Tribunal statistics quarterly, January to March 2026 (Ministry of Justice / HMCTS). Appeals received by the First-tier Tribunal (IAC), total and asylum/protection. Recent quarters provisional/revised.

How appeals are decided

Appeals determined and share allowed, by case type
Case typeDeterminedAllowed / granted
Total26,04144%
Asylum/Protection/Revocation of Protection12,13945%
Human Rights7,58050%
financial year 2024/25 · source

Appeals determined at hearing or on papers, and the share allowed/granted, by case type.

The human rights case type

Human rights appeals carry the highest allowed rate of the case types published: 50% of 7,580 determined in financial year 2024/25, against 45% for asylum and protection. It is a separate route of appeal from an asylum claim: a person can appeal on human rights grounds without having claimed asylum at all, and the tribunal is deciding whether removal would breach rights protected by the Human Rights Act 1998.

What the figure does not mean is worth stating precisely, because it is the most argued-over number on this page. Determined is not decided in this period — an appeal determined in financial year 2024/25 may have been lodged years earlier, so the rate describes a cohort of determinations, not the current success of applications. Cases are not people: one appeal can cover a family. Allowed is not final — an appeal allowed at the First-tier Tribunal can be challenged onward by the Home Office, and the tribunal statistics published here do not follow it there.

And what this site does not hold: the published table gives the case type and nothing beneath it. There is no breakdown of which right was engaged, no split between family and private life, and no onward outcome. The three case types shown above also do not sum to the total — 6,322 determined appeals fall into types the table does not name separately. Any account of why this rate is what it is would have to come from somewhere other than these statistics, so this site does not offer one.

financial year 2024/25 · source

What claims finally become: the cohort analysis

The Home Office follows each year's claims to their latest outcome. Appeals and later grants push the final grant rate above the initial-decision rate in 16 of the 16 published cohorts — the published answer to “what happens after refusal”.

Asylum claim cohorts: initial vs latest grant rate and returns within the cohort
Claim yearClaimsInitial grant rateLatest grant rateReturnedof which enforced
201017,91627%50%5,5864,247
201119,86535%53%5,5924,143
201221,84337%54%6,1314,650
201323,58438%55%6,3585,185
201425,03344%64%4,8573,726
201532,73341%64%4,1462,614
201630,74733%58%4,0692,412
201726,54733%61%2,9341,648
201829,50449%72%2,3631,044
201935,73758%75%2,959979
202029,44060%80%2,122674
202148,18271%80%3,3311,074
202276,94860%68%9,3362,920
202368,46243%49%5,7651,437
202482,36841%45%4,7921,169
202582,55944%47%3,3171,160
claim cohorts 2010 to 2025 · source

Each cohort is followed to its LATEST outcome: the latest grant rate includes appeals and post-decision grants; returns are of people in that claim cohort. Recent cohorts have many outcomes still pending.

Tribunal statistics and Home Office statistics count different things on different bases: FTT case types are not Home Office claim categories, an appeal can be lodged against decisions other than asylum refusals, and recent quarters are provisional or revised. The Home Office's own appeals table has not been updated since year ending March 2023 — this page exists because the live series moved here.

Download this data

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Data as of

Cite this page

Asylum appeals: the tribunal backlog and final grant rates. Migration Watchdog, data as of 2026-09-02.
https://migrationwatchdog.com/appeals
Underlying figures: UK official statistics, re-published under OGL v3.0 — every figure links to its source on the page.

Sources for this page