MigrationWatchdog

Appeals: the next backlog

The Home Office's own appeals table stopped updating in 2023. The Ministry of Justice's tribunal statistics carry the live series — and they show the backlog moving downstream: cleared faster at initial decision, piling up at the tribunal.

151,767
open appeals at the tribunal
at end of 2025/26 Q4 · source
87,450
of which asylum/protection
at end of 2025/26 Q4 · source
27,689
new appeals in the latest quarter
2025/26 Q4 · source
45%
asylum appeals allowed (financial year 2024/25)
financial year 2024/25 · source

For scale: the tribunal's open caseload of 151,767 now stands at roughly three times the Home Office's initial-decision backlog of 48,758 (as at 31 March 2026). Clearing the first queue has been filling the second.

as at 31 March 2026 · source

The tribunal's open caseload

All case typesAsylum/protection
152k02015/16 Q12025/26 Q42015/16 Q1 — All case types: 52,991 · Asylum/protection: 8,2432015/16 Q2 — All case types: 52,628 · Asylum/protection: 8,7542015/16 Q3 — All case types: 57,951 · Asylum/protection: 10,4972015/16 Q4 — All case types: 61,901 · Asylum/protection: 11,6602016/17 Q1 — All case types: 64,821 · Asylum/protection: 11,8482016/17 Q2 — All case types: 62,903 · Asylum/protection: 11,3612016/17 Q3 — All case types: 57,954 · Asylum/protection: 10,1432016/17 Q4 — All case types: 52,365 · Asylum/protection: 7,0292017/18 Q1 — All case types: 43,416 · Asylum/protection: 5,7992017/18 Q2 — All case types: 36,138 · Asylum/protection: 5,5432017/18 Q3 — All case types: 35,106 · Asylum/protection: 6,4072017/18 Q4 — All case types: 36,267 · Asylum/protection: 6,7352018/19 Q1 — All case types: 34,638 · Asylum/protection: 7,0072018/19 Q2 — All case types: 31,547 · Asylum/protection: 6,6212018/19 Q3 — All case types: 27,862 · Asylum/protection: 5,9722018/19 Q4 — All case types: 24,805 · Asylum/protection: 5,4702019/20 Q1 — All case types: 23,233 · Asylum/protection: 5,5342019/20 Q2 — All case types: 20,363 · Asylum/protection: 5,2592019/20 Q3 — All case types: 19,622 · Asylum/protection: 5,2852019/20 Q4 — All case types: 19,845 · Asylum/protection: 5,1122020/21 Q1 — All case types: 20,105 · Asylum/protection: 5,2092020/21 Q2 — All case types: 22,033 · Asylum/protection: 6,1562020/21 Q3 — All case types: 23,526 · Asylum/protection: 6,4512020/21 Q4 — All case types: 24,560 · Asylum/protection: 6,6552021/22 Q1 — All case types: 31,798 · Asylum/protection: 7,0412021/22 Q2 — All case types: 33,111 · Asylum/protection: 7,1772021/22 Q3 — All case types: 31,750 · Asylum/protection: 7,0072021/22 Q4 — All case types: 28,413 · Asylum/protection: 6,7172022/23 Q1 — All case types: 25,084 · Asylum/protection: 6,3192022/23 Q2 — All case types: 25,586 · Asylum/protection: 6,3862022/23 Q3 — All case types: 29,017 · Asylum/protection: 7,1732022/23 Q4 — All case types: 30,548 · Asylum/protection: 7,5102023/24 Q1 — All case types: 30,047 · Asylum/protection: 7,6012023/24 Q2 — All case types: 30,874 · Asylum/protection: 9,3802023/24 Q3 — All case types: 41,484 · Asylum/protection: 19,4592023/24 Q4 — All case types: 50,332 · Asylum/protection: 27,1332024/25 Q1 — All case types: 58,418 · Asylum/protection: 33,2272024/25 Q2 — All case types: 63,016 · Asylum/protection: 34,2342024/25 Q3 — All case types: 74,969 · Asylum/protection: 41,9872024/25 Q4 — All case types: 90,389 · Asylum/protection: 50,9762025/26 Q1 — All case types: 105,522 · Asylum/protection: 59,9252025/26 Q2 — All case types: 121,015 · Asylum/protection: 69,6702025/26 Q3 — All case types: 139,407 · Asylum/protection: 80,3332025/26 Q4 — All case types: 151,767 · Asylum/protection: 87,450
Open caseload at quarter end, First-tier Tribunal (IAC). Tribunal statistics quarterly, January to March 2026 (Ministry of Justice / HMCTS).

New appeals received per quarter

56k02007/08 Q12025/26 Q42007/08 Q1 — 40,3772007/08 Q2 — 54,1112007/08 Q3 — 44,4482007/08 Q4 — 45,7472008/09 Q1 — 49,3852008/09 Q2 — 56,3392008/09 Q3 — 49,4132008/09 Q4 — 50,7542009/10 Q1 — 43,7502009/10 Q2 — 45,3842009/10 Q3 — 43,3852009/10 Q4 — 40,1302010/11 Q1 — 36,5842010/11 Q2 — 39,4912010/11 Q3 — 35,3692010/11 Q4 — 34,6602011/12 Q1 — 28,3602011/12 Q2 — 35,4802011/12 Q3 — 30,6672011/12 Q4 — 27,8642012/13 Q1 — 26,5632012/13 Q2 — 25,7482012/13 Q3 — 27,7682012/13 Q4 — 23,8442013/14 Q1 — 31,5542013/14 Q2 — 27,3872013/14 Q3 — 24,6212013/14 Q4 — 21,4342014/15 Q1 — 19,7032014/15 Q2 — 21,9382014/15 Q3 — 25,7352014/15 Q4 — 24,2512015/16 Q1 — 21,7382015/16 Q2 — 19,4272015/16 Q3 — 18,3732015/16 Q4 — 17,3822016/17 Q1 — 16,0452016/17 Q2 — 14,4722016/17 Q3 — 12,3062016/17 Q4 — 11,6162017/18 Q1 — 7,8492017/18 Q2 — 9,6622017/18 Q3 — 14,9212017/18 Q4 — 12,9082018/19 Q1 — 11,8842018/19 Q2 — 11,2352018/19 Q3 — 10,3872018/19 Q4 — 10,3582019/20 Q1 — 9,9492019/20 Q2 — 10,5742019/20 Q3 — 11,1602019/20 Q4 — 10,6102020/21 Q1 — 2,6212020/21 Q2 — 5,3622020/21 Q3 — 7,8802020/21 Q4 — 10,3482021/22 Q1 — 13,2902021/22 Q2 — 10,0522021/22 Q3 — 8,4822021/22 Q4 — 7,9182022/23 Q1 — 6,2632022/23 Q2 — 9,1962022/23 Q3 — 10,8802022/23 Q4 — 11,4342023/24 Q1 — 9,3582023/24 Q2 — 10,3992023/24 Q3 — 20,1752023/24 Q4 — 18,1162024/25 Q1 — 17,5002024/25 Q2 — 13,5112024/25 Q3 — 21,7902024/25 Q4 — 26,2732025/26 Q1 — 27,5342025/26 Q2 — 30,3092025/26 Q3 — 32,1652025/26 Q4 — 27,689
Appeals received, all case types. Tribunal statistics quarterly, January to March 2026 (Ministry of Justice / HMCTS). Appeals received by the First-tier Tribunal (IAC), total and asylum/protection. Recent quarters provisional/revised.

How appeals are decided

Appeals determined and share allowed, by case type
Case typeDeterminedAllowed / granted
Total26,04144%
Asylum/Protection/Revocation of Protection12,13945%
Human Rights7,58050%
financial year 2024/25 · source

Appeals determined at hearing or on papers, and the share allowed/granted, by case type.

What claims finally become: the cohort analysis

The Home Office follows each year's claims to their latest outcome. Appeals and later grants push final grant rates ABOVE the initial-decision rate — the published answer to "what happens after refusal".

Asylum claim cohorts: initial vs latest grant rate and returns within the cohort
Claim yearClaimsInitial grant rateLatest grant rateReturnedof which enforced
201017,91627%50%5,5884,245
201119,86535%53%5,5904,144
201221,84337%54%6,1244,647
201323,58438%55%6,3595,190
201425,03344%64%4,8533,724
201532,73341%64%4,1352,609
201630,74733%58%4,0572,408
201726,54733%61%2,9101,645
201829,50449%72%2,3281,037
201935,73758%75%2,884963
202029,44060%80%2,058664
202148,18271%80%3,2001,037
202276,94860%67%9,0222,896
202368,46243%48%5,3171,393
202482,36841%44%4,3041,114
claim cohorts 2010 to 2024 · source

Each cohort is followed to its LATEST outcome: the latest grant rate includes appeals and post-decision grants; returns are of people in that claim cohort. Recent cohorts have many outcomes still pending.

Tribunal statistics and Home Office statistics count different things on different bases: FTT case types are not Home Office claim categories, an appeal can be lodged against decisions other than asylum refusals, and recent quarters are provisional or revised. The Home Office's own appeals table (Asy_06_07) has not been updated since year ending March 2023 — this page exists because the live series moved here.

Data as of

Cite this page

Asylum appeals: the tribunal backlog and final grant rates. Migration Watchdog, data as of 2026-08-13.
https://migrationwatchdog.com/appeals
Underlying figures: UK official statistics, re-published under OGL v3.0 — every figure links to its source on the page.

Sources for this page