MigrationWatchdog

How many people are in the UK illegally?

It is the most-asked question about this subject, and it has an honest answer that is not a number.

Nobody publishes it — including the Home Office, which says so in writing. Every figure that gets quoted as an answer is either counting something else, or is an estimate produced outside government on its own assumptions.

The department says so itself

“It is not possible to know the exact number of people currently resident in the UK without permission, nor the total number of people who enter the UK irregularly, and so we do not seek to make any official estimates of the illegal population.”

That is not an evasion. It follows from what the statistics are: a count of encounters. A person can enter undetected, or enter lawfully and overstay, and in neither case does an event get recorded that a statistician could count. There is no register of people present without permission for the same reason there is no register of undetected anything.

What is actually counted

These are the real figures, each linked to its own page and source. Read what each one counts before reading the number: several are flows (events over a period) and several are snapshots (a state on one day), and the two cannot be combined.

15,897
small-boat arrivals detected this year (a flow)
1 January to 20 August 2026 · source
41,472
small-boat arrivals detected in 2025 (a flow)
calendar years, published in the year ending March 2026 release · source
93,525
asylum claims in the latest year (a flow)
Year ending March 2026 · source
48,758
awaiting an initial decision (a snapshot)
as at 31 March 2026 · source
97,519
in receipt of asylum support (a snapshot)
as at 31 March 2026 · source
1,955
held in immigration detention (a snapshot)
at end of Year ending March 2026 · source
39,007
returned from the UK in the latest year (a flow)
year ending March 2026 · source
19,779
foreign national offenders living in the community (a snapshot)
as at end of 2026 Q1 · source
97,519
supported asylum seekers across UK local authorities (a snapshot)
as at 31 Mar 2026 · source

Why these do not add up to an answer

Most of them are not about people here illegally. Someone who has claimed asylum and is awaiting a decision is lawfully present while it is considered. Someone in receipt of asylum support is, by definition, in the system rather than outside it. Counting them as “illegal immigrants” is not a stricter reading of the data, it is a different claim about a different group.

Flows are not stocks. Arrivals, claims and returns count events over a period. Adding several years of arrivals produces the number of arrival events, not the number of people still here: people are granted status, are removed, leave voluntarily, or die, and every one of those exits is invisible in an arrivals series.

The same person can appear more than once. Detection counts are counts of encounters. So are the detention figures — a person detained twice appears twice, which is why the detention-length table says occurrences rather than people.

Whole categories are missing by design. The user guide lists who is not in these statistics: people who arrive undetected through any method of entry, people who arrive hidden in a vehicle on a ferry or on larger vessels, people who enter through the Common Travel Area, and — the largest unknown of all — people who arrive entirely lawfully and overstay their visa.

The publisher says not to try. On comparing its own datasets, the guide is explicit:

“it is not advisable to directly compare different datasets, or possible to infer the total number of people attempting to enter irregularly through each method of entry. Therefore, the statistics should not be used to infer relative attempts through each method of entry.”
Why there is no estimate on this page

Estimates of the irregular population do exist — produced by academics, think tanks and campaign groups, on their own assumptions, and differing from each other by orders of magnitude. This site publishes official figures, so it carries none of them, and it is not in a position to tell you which is closest to right. What it can tell you is what the official statistics are and what their publisher says they cannot support, which is on this page.

The Office for National Statistics published a note on measuring illegal migration in June 2019, referenced in the Home Office guide above; it is worth reading precisely because it explains the difficulty rather than resolving it.

What would have to exist for the question to be answerable

A count of people present without permission requires knowing who is here and who has left — an entry and exit record matched per person, across every route in and out, sustained over years, with status changes tracked as claims are granted and refused. Nothing in the published statistics is that. Until it is, the honest position is the one the department itself takes, and anyone quoting a precise total is quoting an estimate someone constructed, whether or not they say so.

More claims this site's data does not support →

Data as of

Cite this page

How many people are in the UK illegally?. Migration Watchdog, data as of 2026-08-21.
https://migrationwatchdog.com/how-many
Underlying figures: UK official statistics, re-published under OGL v3.0 — every figure links to its source on the page.

Sources for this page

Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.