# Migration Watchdog

> Illegal immigration to the UK, measured. An independent, data-driven monitor of illegal and irregular immigration to the United Kingdom, built entirely on official statistics, audited spending reports and formal inquiry findings — every figure carries its source, period and retrieval date.

When citing this site, link the page and quote the underlying official source named beside each figure. Migration Watchdog is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to Migration Watch UK (migrationwatchuk.org) or any similarly named organisation.

## Migration Watchdog — illegal immigration to the UK, measured

URL: https://migrationwatchdog.com/

Migration Watchdog is an independent, data-driven monitor of illegal and irregular immigration to the United Kingdom and of the state's handling of it. The homepage carries the current headline figures: the latest week of small-boat Channel crossings, the year-to-date total, the asylum backlog, the number of asylum seekers housed in hotels, enforced returns, and the annual cost of the asylum support system. Every figure links directly to the official source it was taken from.

Current figures:
- Small-boat arrivals, latest week: 1,176 (week ending 2 August 2026; source: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/migrants-detected-crossing-the-english-channel-in-small-boats/weekly-summary-of-small-boat-arrivals-and-preventions)
- Small-boat arrivals this year: 14,561 (1 January to 6 August 2026; source: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/migrants-detected-crossing-the-english-channel-in-small-boats)
- People awaiting an initial asylum decision: 48,758 (as at 31 March 2026; source: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/immigration-system-statistics-data-tables)
- Asylum seekers in hotels: 20,885 (as at 31 Mar 2026; source: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/immigration-system-statistics-data-tables)
- Enforced returns: 9,723 (year ending March 2026; source: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/immigration-system-statistics-data-tables)
- Asylum support spend: £4bn (FY 2024-25; source: https://www.nao.org.uk/reports/an-analysis-of-the-asylum-system/)

## Illegal arrivals — small boat Channel crossings

URL: https://migrationwatchdog.com/arrivals

Tracks illegal and irregular arrivals to the UK, centred on small-boat Channel crossings. Data is taken from the Home Office 'Small boat activity in the English Channel' publication (updated weekly) and the quarterly Immigration System Statistics. Includes the latest week's arrivals and boats, French prevention figures, cumulative arrivals by day of year compared with prior years, the monthly series back to 2018, annual totals, the share of asylum claims made after arrival by illegal entry routes, and the age and sex profile of claimants.

Current figures:
- Arrivals, latest week: 1,176 (15 boats) (week ending 2 August 2026; source: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/migrants-detected-crossing-the-english-channel-in-small-boats/weekly-summary-of-small-boat-arrivals-and-preventions)
- Arrivals this year so far: 14,561 (1 January to 6 August 2026; source: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/migrants-detected-crossing-the-english-channel-in-small-boats)
- Arrivals, 2025 (official): 41,472 (calendar year 2025; source: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/immigration-system-statistics-data-tables)
- Top nationality of arrivals: Eritrea (7,602) (calendar year 2025; source: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/immigration-system-statistics-data-tables)
- Adult-male share of arrivals: 75.9% (calendar year 2025; source: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/immigration-system-statistics-data-tables)
- Total long-term net migration (ALL routes, overwhelmingly lawful — context only, not irregular migration): 171,000 (year ending Dec 2025 (provisional); source: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/datasets/longterminternationalimmigrationemigrationandnetmigrationflowsprovisional)
- Share of arrivals claiming asylum or receiving an NRM referral: 99% (arrival year 2025; source: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/immigration-system-statistics-data-tables)

## The asylum system — claims, backlog, outcomes, support

URL: https://migrationwatchdog.com/asylum

Tracks the asylum system end to end: annual claims since 2010, the backlog of people awaiting an initial decision (with its full quarterly series and the June 2023 peak of 175,457), how long people have been waiting, initial-decision outcomes and grant rates — including outcomes of claims from small-boat arrivals and grant rates by nationality, exactly as published — people considered under inadmissibility rules, and the support caseload by support type (Section 95, Section 4, Section 98) with the hotel population over time.

Current figures:
- People claiming asylum: 93,525 (Year ending March 2026; source: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/immigration-system-statistics-data-tables)
- Awaiting an initial decision: 48,758 (as at 31 March 2026; source: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/immigration-system-statistics-data-tables)
- Backlog peak: 175,457 (as at 30 Jun 2023; source: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/immigration-system-statistics-data-tables)
- Waiting 12 months or more: 17,668 (as at 31 March 2026; source: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/immigration-system-statistics-data-tables)
- Asylum-related grants: 48,581 (Year ending March 2026; source: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/immigration-system-statistics-data-tables)
- Small-boat claim grant rate at initial decision: 49% (Year ending March 2026; source: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/immigration-system-statistics-data-tables)
- In receipt of Home Office support: 97,519 (as at 31 March 2026; source: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/immigration-system-statistics-data-tables)

## Asylum appeals — the tribunal backlog and final grant rates

URL: https://migrationwatchdog.com/appeals

Tracks what happens after initial asylum decisions: appeals received by the First-tier Tribunal (Immigration and Asylum Chamber), the share allowed by case type, and the tribunal's OPEN CASELOAD — now roughly three times the Home Office's initial-decision backlog, showing the backlog moving downstream. Includes the Home Office cohort analysis following each year's claims to their latest outcome: final grant rates including appeals exceed initial rates (the 2022 cohort moved from 60% at initial decision to 67% at latest outcome), and returns within each cohort are counted. The Home Office's own appeals table stopped updating in 2023; the Ministry of Justice tribunal statistics are the live series.

Current figures:
- Open appeals at the First-tier Tribunal (IAC): 151,767 (at end of 2025/26 Q4; source: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/tribunals-statistics-quarterly-january-to-march-2026)
- of which asylum/protection: 87,450 (at end of 2025/26 Q4; source: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/tribunals-statistics-quarterly-january-to-march-2026)
- Asylum appeals allowed: 45% (financial year 2024/25; source: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/tribunals-statistics-quarterly-january-to-march-2026)
- 2022 claim cohort grant rate, initial vs latest: 60% vs 67% (claim cohorts 2010 to 2024; source: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/immigration-system-statistics-data-tables)

## Nationalities — who arrives, who claims, what happens

URL: https://migrationwatchdog.com/nationalities

Places the official nationality tables next to each other without merging them: the ten largest nationalities detected arriving by illegal entry routes (with each nationality's complete-year arrival history since 2018 as published in table IER_02b), the asylum table for the same nationalities (claims, initial-decision grant rate, people awaiting a decision), and — in a deliberately separate section with its own caveat — the largest foreign-national groups in prison in England and Wales. The page states its boundary prominently: the tables are different populations on different counting bases, prison nationality is citizenship not immigration status, and no figures are joined across tables.

Current figures:
- Largest illegal-route arrival nationality: Eritrea (7,602) (calendar year 2025; source: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/immigration-system-statistics-data-tables)
- Eritrea asylum claims and grant rate: 8,212 claims, 87% granted at initial decision (Year ending March 2026; source: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/immigration-system-statistics-data-tables)
- Largest foreign-national group in prison (separate register, E&W): Albanian (943) (as at 30 June 2026; source: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/offender-management-statistics-quarterly-january-to-march-2026)

## What the asylum system costs the taxpayer

URL: https://migrationwatchdog.com/costs

Documents what the UK asylum system costs the taxpayer: annual asylum support spending, the hotel bill within it, and the long-run cost of the Home Office's asylum accommodation contracts. There is no machine-readable government costs dataset, so every figure on this page is a curated citation from a National Audit Office report or the Home Office Annual Report and Accounts, quoted exactly and linked.

Current figures:
- Asylum support spend, 2024-25: £4bn (FY 2024-25; source: https://www.nao.org.uk/reports/an-analysis-of-the-asylum-system/)
- Asylum accommodation contracts — original 10-year estimate: £4.5bn (2019–2029 contract term; source: https://www.nao.org.uk/reports/the-home-offices-asylum-accommodation-contracts/)
- Asylum accommodation contracts — current 10-year estimate: £15.3bn (2019–2029 contract term; source: https://www.nao.org.uk/reports/the-home-offices-asylum-accommodation-contracts/)
- Hotels' share of asylum accommodation contract cost: 76% (first seven months of FY 2024-25; source: https://www.nao.org.uk/reports/the-home-offices-asylum-accommodation-contracts/)
- Immigration detention cost per person per day: £148.41 (2026 Q1; source: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/migration-transparency-data)
- Home Office's own unit cost per asylum conclusion: £25,122 (financial year 2023/24; source: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/migration-transparency-data)
- Total asylum costs (department's own accounting): £4.76bn (financial year 2024/25; source: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/migration-transparency-data)
- Provider payments in the £25k+ transparency disclosures: Clearsprings £464.2m, Mears £81.7m, Serco £222.8m across 17 months (January 2025 to May 2026; source: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/home-office-spending-over-25000-2026)

## Foreign national offenders and deportations

URL: https://migrationwatchdog.com/crime

Reports Ministry of Justice and Home Office statistics on foreign national offenders (FNOs): the FNO prison population and its share of the total, the largest nationality groups in prison, FNOs living in the community awaiting deportation, enforced and voluntary returns, and FNO returns. Prison nationality is not immigration status — the page states this caveat prominently: 'foreign national' includes lawful residents, and prison totals alone say nothing about irregular migrants.

Current figures:
- Foreign nationals in prison (E&W): 10,134 (11.8% of prisoners) (as at 30 June 2026; source: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/offender-management-statistics-quarterly-january-to-march-2026)
- FNOs subject to deportation action living in the community: 19,779 (as at end of 2026 Q1; source: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/migration-transparency-data)
- Total returns: 39,007 (year ending March 2026; source: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/immigration-system-statistics-data-tables)
- Enforced returns: 9,723 (year ending March 2026; source: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/immigration-system-statistics-data-tables)
- FNO returns: 5,858 (year ending March 2026; source: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/immigration-system-statistics-data-tables)
- Largest FNO-return offence group: Drug offences (1,865) (year ending December 2025; source: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/immigration-system-statistics-data-tables)
- Small-boat arrivals returned (published cohort): 2,750 (year ending March 2026; source: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/immigration-system-statistics-data-tables)
- Left detention by removal vs bail: 9,916 removed vs 11,406 bailed (Year ending March 2026; source: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/immigration-system-statistics-data-tables)

## Integration and culture — the official evidence

URL: https://migrationwatchdog.com/integration

Reports the official evidence on integration: Census 2021 English-language proficiency, ONS employment rates by country of birth, Home Office Prevent referrals by ideology type, the findings of official inquiries into group-based child sexual exploitation (Baroness Casey's National Audit, June 2025, and IICSA, February 2022 — cited verbatim with page references), and public opinion polling with exact question wording. The page distinguishes ideologies from individuals and specific criminal networks from the communities they came from; nothing on it supports generalisation about any nationality, faith or community beyond what the cited source itself states.

Current figures:
- Main language is not English (E&W): 5,134,447 (Census day, 21 March 2021; source: https://www.nomisweb.co.uk/datasets/c2021ts029)
- Cannot speak English well or at all (E&W): 1,040,346 (Census day, 21 March 2021; source: https://www.nomisweb.co.uk/datasets/c2021ts029)
- Prevent referrals: 8,775 (April 2024 to March 2025; source: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/individuals-referred-to-prevent-to-september-2025)
- Largest Prevent concern type: No ideology identified (3,040) (April 2024 to March 2025; source: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/individuals-referred-to-prevent-to-september-2025)
- Employment rate, UK-born vs non-UK-born: 74.4% vs 77.2% (Jan-Mar 2026 (LFS, not seasonally adjusted); source: https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/datasets/a12employmentunemploymentandeconomicinactivitybynationalityandcountryofbirth)

## Asylum accommodation by local authority

URL: https://migrationwatchdog.com/local

Shows where asylum seekers supported by the Home Office are accommodated, by UK local authority, from the quarterly Immigration System Statistics local-authority tables. Includes dispersal accommodation and contingency (hotel) counts where published, and census context for English and Welsh authorities. Counts are point-in-time snapshots; contingency sites open and close.

Current figures:
- Asylum seekers in receipt of Home Office support: 97,519 (as at 31 Mar 2026; source: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/immigration-system-statistics-data-tables)
- Local authorities with contingency hotels: 115 (as at 31 Mar 2026; source: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/immigration-system-statistics-data-tables)
- Largest local authority by supported asylum seekers: Glasgow City (3,870) (as at 31 Mar 2026; source: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/immigration-system-statistics-data-tables)

## Download the data — cleaned CSV and JSON

URL: https://migrationwatchdog.com/data

Downloadable cleaned datasets: small-boat arrivals (monthly and annual), illegal entry by method, nationality breakdowns, asylum claims, backlog and support series, grants, support by local authority with census context, returns, FNO returns and FNOs in the community, detention, organised-immigration-crime disruptions, humanitarian routes, Prevent referrals, and the curated cost citations with their verbatim quotes. Every file carries a provenance header naming the official source, period, retrieval date and the Open Government Licence.

## Data, sources and methodology

URL: https://migrationwatchdog.com/sources

The transparency page: a register of every primary source used on the site (publisher, licence, update cadence, last published, last checked), the methodology for each data pipeline, the site's anti-fabrication rule (every figure carries source, period and retrieval date; unverifiable figures are dropped or visibly badged), known data limitations, and the corrections policy.

## About Migration Watchdog

URL: https://migrationwatchdog.com/about

Migration Watchdog is an independent, self-funded monitor of illegal and irregular migration to the UK, built entirely on official statistics and inquiry findings. It is critical of the failure to control the border; it is not anti-migrant, it does not campaign, and it takes no advertising or political funding. It is not affiliated with Migration Watch UK or any similarly named organisation.

## Immigration petitions to Parliament — signatures, responses, debates

URL: https://migrationwatchdog.com/petitions

Republishes the largest immigration and asylum petitions from Parliament's petitions site, selected purely by signature count whichever direction they argue in — from restricting migration to extending settlement rights. For each: the petition's exact wording, signature count, open and close dates, responsible department, whether the government responded, whether Parliament debated it (with a link to the transcript), and the per-region breakdown of signatures. The page states its framing rule prominently: a petition's wording is written by its creator and the signature count measures support for that wording, not evidence that the wording is accurate. Regional signature counts do not sum to the total because overseas and unrecorded signatures are excluded, and they are counts rather than population rates.

Current figures:
- Largest immigration/asylum petition: 720,772 signatures — "Introduce offshore detention/mass deportation for illegal migrants" (opened 2025-09-12; source: https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/737105)
- Of the largest petitions listed, debated in Parliament: 5 of 6 (petitions open or closed as at 2026-08-18; source: https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions)

## Immigration bills and Commons votes — the official record

URL: https://migrationwatchdog.com/legislation

Tracks immigration and asylum legislation from the official parliamentary record: bills currently before Parliament with their stage timelines (first reading, second reading, programme and money resolutions, committee stage) and dates sat, bills that have already become Acts, and recent recorded Commons divisions on immigration legislation with published Aye and No totals plus the party breakdown of the division. The page states that it republishes the record and does not rank, grade or score members, that a vote on a bill is not a vote on any single provision within it, and that where the division's member list differs from the published totals by a vote, the published totals are the authority.

Current figures:
- Immigration bill before Parliament: Immigration and Asylum Bill (Committee stage) (as at 2026-08-18; source: https://bills.parliament.uk/bills/4254)
- Most recent Commons division on immigration legislation: Immigration and Asylum Bill: Second Reading: 264 ayes to 90 noes (2026-07-13; source: https://votes.parliament.uk/Votes/Commons/Division/2406)

## Asylum hotels — how many people, where, and what they cost

URL: https://migrationwatchdog.com/hotels

Brings together every official figure that exists on contingency hotel accommodation in the UK asylum support system: the number of people in hotels at the latest snapshot with its share of all Home Office accommodation, the full quarterly series including the September 2023 peak, the local authorities with recorded hotel places (the only official geography that exists), and the National Audit Office's audited figures for what hotels cost and their share of accommodation-contract costs. The page states prominently what is not published and what it will not invent: the Home Office does not publish the names, addresses or locations of asylum hotels, so no such list appears here. Hotels are a subset of contingency accommodation and the counts are point-in-time snapshots by registered address.

Current figures:
- Asylum seekers in contingency hotels: 20,885 (as at 31 Mar 2026; source: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/immigration-system-statistics-data-tables)
- Hotel population peak: 56,018 (30 Sep 2023) (31 Mar 2014 to 31 Mar 2026; source: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/immigration-system-statistics-data-tables)
- Local authorities with recorded hotel places: 115 (as at 31 Mar 2026; source: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/immigration-system-statistics-data-tables)
- Hotels' share of asylum accommodation contract cost: 76% (first seven months of FY 2024-25; source: https://www.nao.org.uk/reports/the-home-offices-asylum-accommodation-contracts/)

## Key figures on UK illegal immigration, answered directly

URL: https://migrationwatchdog.com/answers

A single index of every headline statistic on the site — small-boat arrivals, the asylum backlog and grant rates, appeals caseload, returns and foreign national offenders, costs including the Home Office's own unit cost per asylum conclusion, local-authority accommodation, and the explicitly-labelled context figures (total net migration, EU comparisons) — each with the exact period it covers and a direct link to the official source. Every figure is generated from the same accessors that build the individual pages and llms.txt, so this page can never show a different number from the page it links to.

## What ministers are being asked — written questions on asylum and enforcement

URL: https://migrationwatchdog.com/questions

Lists the most recent answered written parliamentary questions matching asylum, small-boat and immigration-enforcement topics, refreshed weekly from the UK Parliament Written Questions API. Each entry shows the question heading, an excerpt of the question text, the asking member and party, the answering department, and the date answered, and links the official parliamentary record which carries the government's full answer. The page's framing rule is stated on the page: a question is an assertion by a member of Parliament, not a finding of fact, and this site never presents a question's premise as established.

## Corrections log

URL: https://migrationwatchdog.com/corrections

The public corrections log: every substantive error found in this site's own output, dated, with a plain statement of what was wrong and what changed. Seeded with the seven corrections from the August 2026 audit — including a chart that plotted a table's Total column as its largest bar, residual 'Other' rows charted as nationalities, and six English local-authority pages whose census join failed on post-2023 boundaries.

## What this site does not say

URL: https://migrationwatchdog.com/what-this-site-does-not-say

The boundary page: this site does not say migrants are the problem (the failure documented is the state's); does not say most migration is illegal (it is not — irregular arrivals are a small fraction of total migration); does not treat prison nationality as immigration status; does not blame any community for group-based child sexual exploitation (it quotes inquiries verbatim, including their findings about poor data); does not use Prevent referral counts as a measure of extremism among Muslims; does not construct rates its sources don't publish; and endorses nobody.

## Glossary — the system's vocabulary in plain English

URL: https://migrationwatchdog.com/glossary

Plain-English definitions of the immigration system's vocabulary as used on this site: illegal/irregular entry, small boats, dispersal, contingency and hotel accommodation, initial accommodation, Section 95/4/98 support, the backlog, grant rates, enforced and voluntary returns, foreign national offenders and FNOs living in the community, immigration detention, the National Referral Mechanism, Prevent and Channel, inadmissibility, and the difference between year-ending, financial-year and calendar-year periods.

## Changelog

URL: https://migrationwatchdog.com/changelog

Site-level change history: the 9 August 2026 launch, and the 10 August 2026 round adding the asylum page, downloadable datasets, legal-routes and enforcement sections, local-authority enrichment, trust pages and seven logged corrections.

## Notes

- Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.
- Weekly small-boat figures are provisional Home Office operational data; the quarterly Illegal entry routes statistics are authoritative.
- Prison nationality is not immigration status: 'foreign national' includes lawful residents.
- Census context is England and Wales, March 2021.
- Corrections: corrections@migrationwatchdog.com